14 months later: What changes did Harvard and UNC see in their incoming class?

This month, Harvard University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill joined a growing number of highly selective higher education institutions releasing demographic information about the first cohort of new students affected by the Supreme Court’s decision to end race-based affirmative action in college admissions. The announcements drew attention across higher education, given the two schools’ roles in defending race-conscious admission practices in last summer’s Supreme Court cases.  

Among Harvard’s 1,647 newly enrolled students, enrollment of Black first-year students fell to 14%, down from 18% last fall, while Latine enrollment increased to 16%, up from 14%, The New York Times reports. Thirty seven percent of students identified as Asian-American, the same as last year. Of UNC’s 5,624 incoming first-year students, Black students made up 7.8% of the class, and Latine students made up 10.1%, down from 10.5% and 10.8%, respectively, last fall, according to the Times. The share of Asian-American students rose one percentage point to 25.8%.

At the center of a landmark decision

Last summer, Harvard and UNC were at the center of two Supreme Court cases: Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College. Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA) alleged that Harvard’s and UNC’s race-conscious admissions policies violated the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause because they disadvantaged white and Asian-American students. In a consolidated decision for both cases, the Supreme Court’s decision prohibited colleges that receive federal funding from considering race in undergraduate admissions, according to The Chronicle of Higher Education. However, the Court also said applicants could write about their race if it was relevant to their life experiences, such as overcoming discrimination.

The decision reversed 45 years of legal precedent and has led to the first national test of race-neutral admissions policies since the 1978 Supreme Court ruling in the Regents of the University of California v. Bakke case. In that case, the court ruled against the use of racial quotas but endorsed the ‘Harvard Plan’—a formal effort by Harvard to consider race along with several factors in college admission—as a model for colleges to use nationwide. 

Interpreting the data

With race-conscious affirmative action now unconstitutional, the expectation, based on statistical modeling presented in court, was that Black student enrollment at highly selective higher education institutions would decrease while Asian student enrollment would increase, the Times reports. This prediction held true at several universities, with Black student enrollment bearing the brunt, but there were outliers. Some observers said the decline in Black student enrollment at Harvard is smaller than predicted, while others, including Harvard students, alumni, faculty, and staff, have said the change is significant. The Coalition for a Diverse Harvard said that the demographic changes for Black students were “huge,” according to the Times. “Any drop in an already small number can dramatically impact the campus environment for students of color, and students are already reporting negative effects,” the group said.

Related: Enrollment after affirmative action: Snapshots from several incoming classes >

“It’s definitely something that we can feel as we’ve been hosting events,” Elyse Martin-Smith, a Harvard senior and co-chair of Harvard Undergraduate Black Community Leaders, told the Times. “To actually see the decline in the post-affirmative action landscape that we’re in is something that is disappointing but expected.” 

UNC officials say demographic changes for this year’s incoming cohort may not be indicative of the composition of future classes. Officials from other schools also say comparing one college’s numbers with another’s may not reveal the full impact of ending race-based affirmative action. Schools report their data differently, with some colleges including transfer students in their data, declining to release the share of white students enrolled, or opting out of breaking down the share of students of color by race or ethnicity. Others allow students the option of identifying as more than one race, and at some colleges, the share of students choosing not to report their race at all doubled compared to last year.

At the time of the Supreme Court ruling, UNC said it was making efforts to adhere to the law while boosting outreach to prospective students, Inside Higher Ed reported last year. This year, Harvard said it was working to bolster recruitment efforts, such as increasing financial aid, sending admissions staff to over 150 cities, and reaching out to rural students in partnership with other public and private universities, according to the Times

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